Sometimes, I give fish WAY too much credit! I often give them the personification of a Harvard graduate that is somehow able to swim around and tell his lesser buddies (Yale undergrads) that a guy is fishing for them and what said guy is fishing with. With that being said, I think that fish can learn a few things and that we as fishermen can educate them in a way that makes them harder to catch. How else can you explain that bass on public water are harder to catch that farm pond fish? My dad even used to tell me that if a fish could see you, then it wouldn't bite.
Now if you believe that fish can learn and that they have enough intelligence to not bite every lure that passes by, then by deduction, that would mean that selecting the right fly at the right time on the right day is nearly impossible. That is why we, as fly fishermen, spend so much time doing what the guy pictured above is doing; staring at a fly box in quiet contemplation and hoping that we pick the winning lottery number. The article below from Hatch Magazine does a great job of describing the process of fly selection and simplifies the entire process. I hope you get as much out of this short read as I did.
Link: http://www.hatchmag.com/articles/does-fly-pattern-matter/7714291
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